Sun

Solar Power Predictor

About the Model

Model Type: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) - Neural Network Architecture
  • Input Layer: 20 neurons, one for each feature in the dataset.
  • Hidden Layer: Two hidden layers with 32 and 64 neurons, respectively, utilizing ReLU activation functions.
  • Output Layer: 1 neuron for regression.
  • Model Architecture

Purpose: The model predicts solar power generation based on various input features.

Evaluation: The model is evaluated using:
  • Mean Squared Error (MSE): Measures the average squared difference between predicted and actual values.
  • Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): Square root of MSE, representing the average magnitude of the error in the same units as the target variable.
Training Details:
  • The model is trained on 75% of the data (training set) and evaluated on the remaining 25% (test set).
  • A random seed (42) is used to ensure reproducible results.
  • Feature scaling (standardization) is applied to both input features and the target variable.
  • The model has:
    1. Two hidden layers with 32 and 64 neurons, respectively.
    2. ReLU activation function in both hidden layers.
    3. Trained for 150 epochs.

Model Input Parameters

ParameterUnit
Temperature at 2 meters above the ground Celsius
Relative humidity at 2 meters above the groundPercentage
Mean sea level pressureHectopascals (hPa) or millibars (mb)
Total precipitation at the surface Millimeters or liters per square meter
Snowfall amount at the surfaceCentimeters
Total cloud cover at the surfacePercentage
High-level cloud cover in the high cloud layerPercentage
Medium-level cloud cover in the mid-level cloud layerPercentage
Low-level cloud cover in the low cloud layerPercentage
Shortwave radiation at the surfaceWatts per square meter
Wind speed at 10 meters above the groundMeters per second
Wind direction at 10 meters above the ground Degrees(0-360)
Wind speed at 80 meters above the groundMeters per second
Wind direction at 80 meters above the ground Degrees(0-360)
Wind speed at 900 millibars (mb) pressure levelMeters per second
Wind direction at 900 millibars (mb) pressure level Degrees(0-360)
Wind gust at 10 meters above the ground Meters per second
Angle of incidence (specific to solar radiation) Degrees
Solar zenith angle (specific to solar radiation) Degrees
Solar azimuth angle (specific to solar radiation)Degrees
Generated solar powerWatts

Model Results

Comparison between Predicted and Real Generated Power.

Comparison between Predicted and Real Generated Power.

Comparison of Solar Azimuth with Predicted and Real Generated Power.

Solar Azimuth vs. Predicted and Real Generated Power

Correlation Heatmap: Understanding Relationships in the Dataset

A heatmap is a graphical representation of data where individual values contained in a matrix are represented as colors. It is a way of visualizing data in a 2D space, where the values of each matrix element are represented as colors. Heatmaps are particularly useful for showing the correlation or distribution of values across two dimensions

Correlation Heatmap: Understanding Relationships in the Dataset

Model statistics

R-squared (R2) score : The R-squared (R2) score is a metric used in regression analysis to assess how well a model's predictions align with the observed data. Ranging from 0 to 1, a higher R2 indicates a better fit, with 1 representing a perfect fit and 0 indicating no improvement over a mean-based model. The score quantifies the proportion of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independent variables. It is valuable for comparing models and assessing their predictive power. However, limitations exist, and complementary metrics should be considered for a comprehensive evaluation of regression models.

Mean of Test Set:

  • Definition: The average (arithmetic mean) of the predicted values or target variable in the test set.
  • Use: Provides a central measure of the model's predicted values on the test data.

Standard Deviation of Test Set:

  • Definition: A measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of the predicted values around the mean.
  • Use: Indicates how spread out the predictions are, helping to assess the model's consistency.

Relative Standard Deviation (Coefficient of Variation):

  • Definition: The ratio of the standard deviation to the mean, expressed as a percentage.
  • Use: Provides a normalized measure of variability, allowing comparison of variability relative to the mean. Useful for comparing models with different scales.
StatisticValue
R2 Score of Whole Data Frame0.867086
R2 Score of Training Set0.913460
R2 Score of Test Set0.761501
Mean of Test Set1092.545532
Standard Deviation of Test Set896.916748
Relative Standard Deviation0.820942

Feature importance : Feature importance is a concept in machine learning that quantifies the contribution of each input variable (feature) to the model's predictive performance. It helps identify the most influential features in making accurate predictions. Techniques such as tree-based models (e.g., decision trees, random forests) and algorithms like permutation importance are commonly used to assess feature importance. High importance values suggest that a feature has a significant impact on the model's ability to make accurate predictions, aiding in understanding the key drivers behind the model's decision-making process. Feature importance is valuable for feature selection, model interpretation, and enhancing overall model understanding.

Feature ImportanceValue
Temperature at 2 meters above the ground-0.0831202095
Relative humidity at 2 meters above the ground-0.1060344323
Mean sea level pressure0.1176043104
Total precipitation at the surface-0.0019499833
Snowfall amount at the surface0.0122035206
Total cloud cover at the surface-0.0853682636
High-level cloud cover in the high cloud layer-0.0275538812
Medium-level cloud cover in the mid-level cloud layer-0.0449632463
Low-level cloud cover in the low cloud layer-0.0450913885
Shortwave radiation at the surface0.3800936371
Wind speed at 10 meters above the ground0
Wind direction at 10 meters above the ground0.0105151165
Wind speed at 80 meters above the ground0.0538507705
Wind direction at 80 meters above the ground0.0150801662
Wind speed at 900 millibars (mb) pressure level-0.106695277
Wind direction at 900 millibars (mb) pressure level0
Wind gust at 10 meters above the ground -0.01625386
Angle of incidence-0.4405263372
Solar zenith angle-0.1431061976
Solar azimuth angle-0.4310704873